There are about 1-3 per nether fortress, 4 if you're lucky. At this rate it takes hours to find one. Say you find 10 nether fortresses in 5 hours while using looting 3, and each fortress has 3 skeletons. 10 * 3 = 30 skeletons to kill. The probability of getting one head is [1 - (1 - 0.055) ^ 30] = 81.68%. The probability of getting 2 heads can be solved by using a binomial expression, P(X = 2) = (30! / (30-2)! * 2!) * 0.055 ^ 2 * 0.945 ^ (30-2) = 27.00%. The probability of getting 3 heads is 14.66% (use the calculator at
http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx). It's too time consuming to get wither skulls by yourself which is often unsuccessful.